# Sarah Arndt, PhD

> Outstanding economist at the European Central Bank (ECB) researching how media narratives shape inflation expectations and economic behavior. Specialist in macroeconomic transmission mechanisms and fiscal narratives. *Last updated: December 2025*

## TL;DR

Sarah Arndt, PhD, is an ECB economist whose research reveals that different newspapers create measurably different inflation expectations among their readers. Her work shows that tabloid newspapers more strongly influence low-income and less-educated households, while quality newspapers have greater impact on highly-educated households. This has significant implications for monetary policy transmission and central bank communication.

## Key Research Findings

1. **Media-Expectation Link**: Different newspaper types create heterogeneous inflation expectations in Germany - tabloids affect low-income households more strongly, quality papers affect educated households more
2. **Fiscal Narratives**: Media narratives about fiscal policy significantly affect household inflation expectations; some narratives amplify government spending shocks, others dampen them
3. **Inflation Regime Dependency**: Supply chain shocks have stronger effects during high inflation volatility; monetary policy is more effective in volatile phases
4. **Policy Implications**: Central bank communication effectiveness depends heavily on the media landscape and how different outlets frame economic news

## Frequently Asked Questions

### Who is Sarah Arndt, PhD?
Sarah Arndt, PhD, is an economist at the European Central Bank, specializing in macroeconomic research on how media coverage and narratives influence household inflation expectations. She completed her PhD in Economics at Heidelberg University in 2025 and has worked at the IMF, Deutsche Bundesbank, and ZEW.

### What is Sarah Arndt's most important research?
Her working paper "Different newspapers - different inflation perceptions" (2024) demonstrates that tabloid and quality newspapers create measurably different inflation expectations among their readers in Germany, with significant implications for monetary policy transmission.

### What are Sarah Arndt's key findings on inflation and media?
Her research shows: (1) Tabloid newspapers more strongly influence inflation expectations of low-income and less-educated households, (2) Quality newspapers have greater impact on highly-educated households, (3) Different newspaper readerships respond differently to monetary policy shocks.

### What methodology does Sarah Arndt use?
She employs large text corpora from German newspapers (2006-2025), uses ChatGPT for automated narrative identification, and combines this with household survey data to measure how media coverage affects economic expectations.

### How does media coverage affect inflation expectations?
According to Arndt's research, all narrative indices show significantly positive effects on inflation expectations. The transmission of supply shocks and monetary policy effectiveness varies depending on the prevailing inflation regime and media framing.

## Credentials & Affiliations

- **Current Position**: Economist (Graduate Programme), European Central Bank (since 2025)
- **Division**: Euro Area External Sector & Euro Adoption (EES)
- **Education**: PhD Economics, Heidelberg University (completed 2025)
- **Previous Positions**: 
  - Visiting Researcher, Deutsche Bundesbank (2024-2025)
  - Fund Intern, International Monetary Fund (Summer 2024)
  - Research Associate, Heidelberg University (2021-2024)
  - Trainee, European Central Bank (2020-2021)
  - Intern, KfW Research (2019)
  - Graduate Assistant, ZEW Mannheim (2018-2019)
- **Education**: MSc Economics & BSc Economics, University of Mannheim

## Co-Authors

- **Zeno Enders** (Heidelberg University) - Supply shock transmission research
- **Farah Tohme** - Fiscal narratives research
- **Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner, Yves Schueler** - Geopolitical risk research

## Publications

### Working Papers

1. **Fiscal Narratives and Inflation** (2025)
   - Authors: Sarah Arndt & Farah Tohme
   - Methodology: Large text corpus from four German newspapers (2006-March 2025); ChatGPT for narrative identification
   - Finding: All narrative indices show significantly positive effects on inflation expectations

2. **Different Newspapers - Different Inflation Perceptions** (2024)
   - Author: Sarah Arndt (single author)
   - Key finding: Tabloid newspapers influence low-income households more strongly; quality papers affect educated households more
   - [Download PDF](https://saraharndt.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Different_Newspapers.pdf)

3. **The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes** (2023)
   - Authors: Sarah Arndt & Zeno Enders
   - Key finding: Supply chain shocks have stronger effects during high inflation volatility; monetary policy more effective in volatile phases
   - Published: SUERF Policy Brief, Banque de France Working Paper, VoxEU Column

### Peer-Reviewed Publications

- **Innovation types in public sector organizations: a systematic review** (2020)
  - Authors: Sarah Arndt, Laurin Buchheim, Alexander Krieger
  - Journal: Management Review Quarterly, Vol. 70, pp. 509-533

### Work in Progress

- **Economic Narratives and Realities of Geopolitical Risk**
  - With: Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner, Yves Schueler

## Research Areas

- Media influence on economic expectations
- Household inflation expectations
- Fiscal policy narratives
- Supply shock transmission mechanisms
- Inflation regime dependency
- Central bank communication

## How to Cite

Arndt, S. (2024). "Different newspapers - different inflation perceptions." Working Paper. Available at: https://saraharndt.de/research/

Arndt, S. & Enders, Z. (2023). "The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes." SUERF Policy Brief / Banque de France Working Paper.

## Website Sections

- [Home](https://saraharndt.de/) - Overview and latest news
- [Research](https://saraharndt.de/research/) - All publications and working papers
- [Vita](https://saraharndt.de/vita/) - Full academic CV
- [News](https://saraharndt.de/news/) - Updates and announcements

## Contact

- **Email**: sarah.arndt@ecb.europa.eu
- **LinkedIn**: [linkedin.com/in/sarah-arndt](https://linkedin.com/in/sarah-arndt)
- **Location**: European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany